How the House elects its speaker, and why Tuesday's vote could make history

When the 118th Congress convenes Tuesday, the first item on the House's agenda will be choosing a new speaker. While the majority party has elected their nominee on the first ballot over the past century, this year could be different. 

Republican leader Kevin McCarthy, of California, needs a majority of members present to vote for him — which makes the magic number 218 (but that math could get tricky; see below). If he fails to get that level of support, it would be the first time since 1923 that the House would need multiple ballots in a speaker election. 

Since the House can't proceed to other business until it selects the speaker, a loss for McCarthy on the first ballot would require more votes until he or someone else does receive a majority — something that has happened only 14 times in the chamber's history.

Here’s a look at how the process will play out: 

When is the vote for speaker of the House?

The 20th Amendment requires Congress to meet at noon on Jan. 3. When the 118th Congress convenes, it will follow a long-held routine that includes the call to order, an opening prayer and reciting of the Pledge of Allegiance, a quorum call, the nominations for speaker (Republicans will nominate McCarthy, while Democrats will nominate Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, of New York), and the vote for speaker. Based on recent history, that vote could start anywhere from 30 minutes to an hour and a half after the House convenes.

If McCarthy wins, he will be escorted to the chair to make remarks and be sworn in, and then he will administer the oath of office to members, followed by a vote on the new House's rules.

218 is the magic number, but it could get tricky

To win the gavel, a candidate needs support from a majority of the House members present, meaning McCarthy will need 218 votes if every one of the current members votes and does so for a candidate by name.

Members vote "viva voce," meaning they stand when their names are called by a reading clerk and verbally announce whom they are supporting for the position. Members can vote for anyone (even people who are not members of the House), vote present, or not vote at all. 

If every member doesn't show up, or if some vote present instead of supporting a candidate, that decreases what the majority vote needs to be. A speaker candidate has won without 218 votes only six times since 1913, when the size of the House increased to 435; those instances, which all came within a few votes of the magic number, include Sam Rayburn in 1943, Newt Gingrich in 1997, John Boehner in 2015 and Nancy Pelosi in 2021, according to the Congressional Research Service.

What happens if no speaker is chosen initially?

Some vocal far-right Republican opponents of McCarthy could try to block him from winning, however, including Reps. Andy Biggs of Arizona, Matt Gaetz of Florida, Bob Good of Virginia, Matt Rosendale of Montana, and Ralph Norman of South Carolina.

Further, a group of nine conservative Republicans wrote a letter over the weekend expressing skepticism over his potential speakership, saying McCarthy has not yet done enough to earn their support. They include Reps. Paul Gosar of Arizona, Chip Roy of Texas, Scott Perry of Pennsylvania, Dan Bishop of North Carolina, Andrew Clyde of Georgia, Andy Harris of Maryland and three representative-elects.

If no candidate can win a majority, the House will continue to hold votes until one does; that has happened only 14 times in the chamber's history; 13 of these took place before the Civil War, and the last occurrence was 1923. 

Why hasn’t this happened more since the Civil War? Political parties are much stronger now than they were then, when House members were often more loyal to their region. The speaker election also changed from secret ballot to viva voce in 1839, which made it easier for party leaders to pressure members to support specific candidates. 

“The Civil War established this norm — an institution, the partisan cartel — where the parties agreed to air their dirty laundry in caucus but then to coalesce around the party leader, whoever got a majority in caucus,” said Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Charles Stewart, co-author of the book “Fighting for the Speakership: The House and the Rise of Party Government.” 

So, could this take a while?

While it hasn't happened in a while, there is precedent for the process of electing a speaker to take days, weeks, and in some cases, even months.

In 1855-56, it took 133 ballots over the course of two months to elect the new speaker. In 1923, it took nine ballots after a group of progressive Republicans refused to support the party's nominee, Frederick Gillett, until certain rules changes were made — a situation that mirrors what McCarthy has been facing. Eventually, Republican leader Nicholas Longworth struck a deal with the group to get Gillett elected. 

On two occasions, the House voted to change the rules and elect the speaker by a plurality instead of a majority — in 1849 and 1856 — both times because members feared they would never be able to elect a speaker by a majority vote. 

When an election has taken multiple ballots, the House has held only a few votes each day. If this happens Tuesday, the chamber could adjourn after three or four unsuccessful votes, which would give party leaders time to whip members outside the chamber and try to strike deals.

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